Countdown to Buller - Pace Planning

Buller here I cometh! can't think of a better way to visit Buller for the first time really. :)

Here's my rather amateur study of the slopes & pace planning.. (never been to Buller so won't really know how accurate my assessment of the terrains are - until Fri nite)

1.5k in total steeps?

steeps 2k in total? 

5 steeps around 1k in total?

So lets say for every steep - we give it 15min/km pace, we have around 4.5k of steeps
The rest we decrease speed by every 0.5min/km pace every 1/3 of distance
So 4.5k steeps, 16.5k normal

Steeps
Steeps 4.5k x 15min/km = 1hr 7 min 30 sec

Normal
Normal 16.5 divide into 3 zones = 5.5km per zone
First 5.5km - 6min/km = 33min
2nd 5.5km - 6:30min/km = 35min 45sec
3rd 5.5km - 7min/km = 38min 30sec
Total = 107min 15sec

Grand total = 1hr 47min 15sec + 1 hr 7min 30 sec = 2hr 54min 45 sec

So expected time is 2:50 to 3 hours

First check point 7k, you should expect 42-45min 
2nd check point 14k, you should expect 50-55min, total = 1hr 32min - 1hr 40min 
3rd check point 21k, you should expect 52:30 + 24:30 = 1hr 17min, total = 2 hr 49min - 2 hr 54min

First 7k, you should feel fresh still
2nd 7k, you should feel the strain
3rd 7k, you should be gritting your teeth

Makes sense?